Friday, August 1, 2014

Stock Buying Success Requires Sticking to the Fundamentals


When Traders find that their results aren’t measuring up to their expectations, sometimes the answer can be found by going back to the basics. Two terms that Stock Traders  and Forex Traders should never lose track of is ‘support’ and ‘resistance’.

It’s so tempting to look at a chart of share price and see the potential in how far a trend might go and how much profit the Trader might make. However, a quick look at support and resistance might shed new light on the subject. In this post I’m going to differentiate strong resistance from moderate resistance and strong support from moderate support. You may have never heard of support and resistance in terms of moderate or strong. So this information may be helpful to you.

Support

With an upward-trending share price action, as shown in the figure below, we look for support under the price action.  Notice two important factors:

1.      The price action bounced off the support lines at least five times.

2.      The price action lasted for almost three years (the space between each vertical line is 3 months).







Strong support will exhibit more than 3 bounces off the support line and last for a period of 3 or more weeks.  Without a doubt, the price action above demonstrates strong support.

Moderate support is represented by 3 touches of the resistance line over a period of 2 to 3 weeks. If it’s less than 3 touches, or less than 2 weeks, I wouldn’t call it a valid support. However, this is my preference. As a Trader you must use your own judgment as to whether it’s support or not.

Caution: Some Traders insist that the price touch the line, not fall short, and not go beyond. Don’t be too picky about this. If it’s close, we’ll call it a touch. Also note, each candle that touches the support line is considered a touch.

Resistance

With an down-trending price action, as shown in the figure below, we look for resistance above the price action.  Notice two important factors:

1.      The price action bounced off the resistance line at least five times.

2.      The price action lasted for almost two years (the space between each vertical line is 3 months).


Strong resistance will exhibit more than 3 bounces off the resistance line over a period of 3 or more weeks. Without a doubt, the price action above demonstrates strong resistance.
Moderate resistance is represented by 3 touches of the resistance line over a period of 2 to 3 weeks. If it’s less than 3 touches, or less than 2 weeks, I would hesitate in calling it a valid resistance. However, this is my preference. As a Trader you must use your own judgment as to whether it’s resistance or not.
Caution: Some Traders insist that the price touch the line, not fall short, and not go beyond. Don’t be too picky about this. If it’s close, we’ll call it a touch.  Also note, each candle that touches the resistance line is considered a touch.
Why Is the Strength Important?
The strength of the support and resistance is important because the stronger the support, or the stronger the resistance, the more you as the Trader can trust it when setting your stop loss and take profit levels in your trade.
When Resistance Becomes Support
When price action makes a legitimate and sustained move above resistance, the resistance line becomes the new support line. Likewise, when price action makes a legitimate and sustained move below support, the support line becomes the new resistance line.
I made reference above to a ‘legitimate and sustained move’.  Often the price action will move above resistance, or below support, but the move is very temporary and will correct itself within 2 or 3 candles. So be aware that the move above resistance or below support could be a ‘false breakout’.
For more information on these topics, click on support or click on resistance.





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